Utilisateur:Environnement2100/Prap
Hirsch report
modifierAs a large number of predictions have been proposed, the National Energy Technology Laboratory published a useful summary of them, keeping only the most prominent, and set them in three groups, along with their prediction periods :
| Name | Quality | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Pickens, T. Boone | Oil & gas investor | 2005 |
| Deffeyes, K. | Retired professor & geologist | December 2005 |
| Westervelt, E.T. et al. | US Army Corps of Engineers | At hand |
| Bakhtiari, S. | Iranian National Oil Co. planner | Now |
| Herrera, R. | Retired BP geologist | Close or past |
| Groppe, H. | Oil / gas expert & businessman | Very soon |
| Wrobel, S. | Investment fund manager | By 2010 |
| Bentley, R. | University energy analyst | Around 2010 |
| Campbell, C. | Retired oil company geologist | 2010 |
| Skrebowski, C. | Editor of Petroleum Review | 2010 +/- a year |
- before 2010 :
| Name | Quality | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Meling, L.M. | Statoil oil company geologist | around 2011 |
| Pang, X., et al. | China University of Petroleum | Around 2012 |
| Koppelaar, R.H.E.M. | Dutch oil analyst | Around 2012 |
| Volvo Trucks | Within a decade | |
| de Margerie, C. | Oil company executive | Within a decade |
| al Husseini, S. | Retired Exec. VP of Saudi Aramco | 2015 |
| Merrill Lynch | Brokerage / Fin. | Around 2015 |
| West, J.R. | PFC Energy29 (Consultants) | 2015-2020 |
| Maxwell, C.T. | Weeden & Co.30 (Brokerage / Financial) | Around 2020 or earlier |
| Wood Mackenzie | Energy consulting | Tight balance by 2020 |
| Total | French oil company | Around 2020 |
- between 2010 and 2020 :
| Name | Quality | Date |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | Brokerage / Financial | Mid to late 2020s |
| CERA | Energy consulting | Well after 2030 |
| CERA | Energy consulting | "Peak oil theory is garbage” |
| ExxonMobil | Oil company | No sign of peaking |
| Browne, J. | BP CEO | Impossible to predict |
| OPEC | Deny peak oil theory |
- after 2020 :